What I'm working on this month.
Last updated May 2026.
Building.
Forecast Arena is in its sandbox-dialogue phase with the CMA, and quietly onboarding the first hundred forecasters. The thing taking most of my attention right now is getting the scoring engine to feel fair to humans and legible to machines at the same time.
Writing.
The next Economic Whisperer goes out next Sunday, and it's about why Kenya's inflation print keeps surprising the market — and what that says about how we measure prices in an economy where half the food is informal.
Reading.
Currently working through Tetlock's Superforecasting for the third time, and a stack of CBK monetary policy committee minutes that I keep meaning to write about.
Travelling.
Nairobi, mostly. Leo's still small.
Thinking about.
Whether forecasting accuracy is even the right metric — or whether the more useful thing a prediction platform can produce is honest disagreement, surfaced early, between people who would otherwise never have spoken.
Inspired by Derek Sivers' /now page movement. If you have a personal site, build one of these. It's good for you.